These Are the Problems We Solve
Ohio’s power squeeze — and how a servicing company helps businesses navigate it
US Energy Sales Ohio · non-residential accounts
For larger commercial and industrial meters especially — factories, schools, YMCAs, farms, churches, government — the choices below are real. Households aren’t the focus here.
Ohio did not run out of gas molecules. It ran out of firm, on-peak megawatts.
That is the plot. Higher bills on Main Street, capacity auctions that cleared far higher than the long-run habit, data-center load growth, and the “why is power so high?” call from a plant manager — all subplots of that scarcity.
Below: each problem, then what we solve — how a servicing company that watches markets around the clock, talks to producers, and plans purchases around your budget keeps businesses from eating the worst of it.
Who this is for: small business, medium factories, industrial loads, schools, charities like YMCAs, farms, churches, and government. Not typical home accounts.
1. Capacity prices jumped — and largely stayed elevated
For years across Ohio’s investor-owned utility footprints — AEP Ohio, AES Ohio, Duke Energy Ohio, and FirstEnergy’s Ohio Edison, Cleveland Illuminating, and Toledo Edison — capacity often lived near ~0.5¢ per kilowatt-hour — the retail footprint of auctions that commonly cleared around ~$100–120 per megawatt-day.
Then clearing prices moved sharply higher:
| Era | $/MW-day | Every-hour ¢/kWh | Commercial peak shape |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long-run half-cent baseline | ~$100–120 | ~0.5¢ | ~0.9¢ |
| Soft trough (not the real baseline) | ~$29 | ~0.1¢ | ~0.2¢ |
| Spike | ~$270 | ~1.1¢ | ~2.1¢ |
| Cap | ~$329 | ~1.4¢ | ~2.5¢ |
Monthly dollars that land on real meters:
| Who | Peak | Use | Half-cent era | At ~$270 | At ~$329 | Jump |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Street shop / small farm | 20 kW | 8,000 kWh | ~$73 | ~$164 | ~$200 | +$90–$125/mo |
| Mid-size school / YMCA / city building | 75 kW | 30,000 kWh | ~$274 | ~$616 | ~$751 | +$340–$475/mo |
| Medium factory | 500 kW | 200,000 kWh | ~$1,825 | ~$4,100 | ~$5,000 | +$2.3–$3.2k/mo |
| Larger industrial (~1 MW) | 1,000 kW | 450,000 kWh | ~$3,650 | ~$8,200 | ~$10,000 | +$4.6–$6.4k/mo |
PJM capacity is already auctioned years forward — through 2029. The big capacity line items are largely known. Weather and a few technical true-ups still move bills; reinventing the auction every morning does not.
What we solve
We treat capacity as a known budget line, not a surprise. We map the cleared PJM prices through 2029 onto your load shape, show the dollars before they hit, and structure supply so you are not naked to the spike. When the insurance premium for “will the plants be there?” jumped from a half-cent habit to multi-cent reality, our job became locking clarity and cutting avoidable exposure — for shops, factories, and industrial meters alike.
2. Plants retired. Firm replacements lagged.
Ohio closed on the order of ~14,500 MW since 2012. PJM’s own study warned roughly 40 GW (about 21% of capacity) was at risk by 2030. Coal left. Queues clogged. Some Ohio gas projects slip toward 2032.
The grid retired first and built later. Scarcity is the feature, not the bug.
What we solve
You cannot reopen a retired plant from a spreadsheet. You can treat scarcity as a known budget risk instead of an unmanaged surprise. We watch the wholesale tape around the clock, worldwide, see tightness and softness early, and position commercial and industrial accounts so plant exits show up as a planned line — not a blind punch to the budget.
3. Transmission gaps
New load showed up. Wires did not always follow. Congestion and deliverability turn “cheap elsewhere” into “expensive here.”
What we solve
We do not build transmission. We price around the gaps. Zone by zone, we watch where power can actually be delivered, avoid products that look cheap on a slide and expensive on your meter, and keep businesses from buying basis risk they cannot see.
4. Natural gas is abundant — pipes are not
Appalachia is thick with molecules. Pipeline takeaway is not. Molecules without delivery are a museum exhibit, not a megawatt. On the local side, Ohio businesses take delivery through LDCs like Enbridge Gas Ohio (formerly Dominion), Columbia Gas of Ohio, Duke Energy Ohio gas service, CenterPoint Energy Ohio (sale to National Fuel pending), and The Ohio Gas Company in northeast and northwest Ohio — same molecule fight, different citygate. When gas is constrained into a plant site, power prices feel it. When gas goes long, power usually gets a chance to soften.
What we solve
This is our home field. We talk directly to power and natural gas producers, and we work the Ohio LDC map — from Duke Energy Ohio gas and CenterPoint Energy Ohio (formerly Vectren; sale to National Fuel pending) territories to The Ohio Gas Company’s northwest Ohio footprint. We see surpluses forming before they become headlines. When gas is long, we look for the opening. When pipes are tight, we do not pretend otherwise — we buy timing and structure that respect the constraint. Surplus gas should mean cheaper opportunity. Our desk exists to catch it for business customers.
5. Data centers ate the spare megawatts
Hyperscale load did not politely wait for new plants. The Independent Market Monitor tied data-center demand to on the order of ~$9.3 billion of the 2025/26 capacity-auction revenue increase. Ohio sits in the same wholesale market.
What we solve
You are not competing with a data center for a press release. You are competing for priced electrons. We keep non-residential customers in the conversation: fold the known capacity stack through 2029 into the plan, buy energy on weakness when it appears, and help Main Street, mid-size factories, and industrial loads avoid the priciest stretches of a tight market — no guaranteed ¢/kWh cut. Results are different for each business's usage profile.
6. IRA fallout — long game vs. short pain
The Inflation Reduction Act did not set the auction clearing price. It sped clean build, propped nuclear (45U), and interacted with rules that push coal out faster than firm replacements arrive. Long-term: more clean megawatts. Short-term: the capacity crunch you are paying for now.
What we solve
We do not lobby Congress for you. We bridge the gap between policy timelines and payroll. While the grid rebalances, we lock what is knowable (capacity through 2029), trade what is movable (energy and gas), and keep your business from treating a federal transition as an unmanaged open position.
7. Municipal customers sit outside Ohio Choice
Investor-owned utility customers — AEP Ohio, AES Ohio, Duke Energy Ohio, and FirstEnergy’s Ohio Edison, Cleveland Illuminating, and Toledo Edison — can shop generation on Energy Choice Ohio. If you take power from your city’s municipal utility, you generally cannot shop the same way. Different retail movie. Same PJM ocean underneath.
That does not mean municipal-territory businesses have zero energy options. On natural gas, many can still compete for supply behind LDCs such as Duke Energy Ohio gas, The Ohio Gas Company (northwest Ohio), Columbia Gas of Ohio, Enbridge Gas Ohio, or CenterPoint Energy Ohio. For AMP municipal-power towns with natural gas service, we can talk through whether on-site generation is worth a look.
What we solve
We tell the truth about the lane you are in. IOU-territory businesses get competitive supply structured around cleared capacity and live commodity markets. Municipal-territory businesses get clarity on what can and cannot move — no false shopping promises, no silence about the wholesale costs still flowing through — plus real talk on gas choice. Either way: eyes on the market, not a brochure.
Commodity desk — how we hunt
- Market monitoring around the clock, worldwide
- Direct relationships with power and natural gas producers
- Watch for surpluses — gas long usually means power gets a chance to get cheaper
- Lock known PJM capacity prices through 2029 so the big line item is a plan, not a prayer
- Help businesses avoid the worst price exposure while the grid catches up
Capacity is largely auctioned. Energy timing is still a live sport. That is the desk.
Five-year whole-bill context (EIA Ohio)
Commercial: roughly ~9–10¢/kWh around 2021 → about 13.8¢ in June 2026.
Industrial: roughly ~6.5–7¢ → about 9.9¢.
On the order of ~40%+ in five years. Capacity is a major chapter. Not the whole book.
The closer
These are the problems we solve.
Ohio did not run out of molecules. It ran out of delivered, firm, on-peak megawatts. Until plants, pipes, and wires catch the AI-era load curve — into the early 2030s for some projects — expensive power is the bill for retiring first and building later.
A servicing company that watches the tape, knows the producers, and buys weakness exists for one reason: so small business, medium factories, and industrial customers are not alone in that bill.
Sources
| Claim | Source |
|---|---|
| Ohio ~14.5 GW closed since 2012 | Ohio General Assembly energy-committee reliability testimony (2025) |
| PJM ~40 GW at risk | PJM Resource Retirements, Replacements & Risks (2023) |
| Capacity ~$29 / ~$270 / ~$329; auctions into late 2020s | PJM BRA reports; FERC cap on 2026/27 |
| ~0.5¢/kWh long-run baseline | ¢/kWh ≈ $/MW-day × 365 ÷ 8,760 ÷ 10; matches ~$100–120/MW-day era common across AEP Ohio, AES Ohio / DP&L, Duke Energy Ohio, and FirstEnergy Ohio (Ohio Edison, Cleveland Illuminating, Toledo Edison) RTO prints (trough ~$29 ≈ ~0.1¢, not the multi-year norm) |
| Data-center auction impact | Monitoring Analytics IMM Parts G/H; IEEFA summary |
| Gas / pipe constraints; ~2032 slips | Ohio River Valley Institute; trade press (e.g. Chestnut Run) |
| Munis outside Choice | Ohio R.C. 4928.20; Energy Choice Ohio |
| IRA / 45U | IRA statute; PJM policy-retirement framing |
| OH commercial/industrial rates | U.S. EIA Electric Power Monthly |
For education — not a rate guarantee. Results are different for each business's usage profile.
Your Options
Businesses have more choices than “sign a fixed rate and hope.” Large competitive energy companies — a leading national retail power company, a major independent power producer, and a major Northeast gas-and-electric marketer — sell a whole toolbox of hedges. The point of a servicing company is not to invent physics — it is to navigate that toolbox so a shop, plant, school, farm, YMCA, church, or government meter ends up in the right structure for its risk appetite.
Good news if you run a bigger shop, plant, school, or campus: natural gas and power aren’t one-size-fits-all. You actually get real choices — lock a price, float with the market, mix both, or set a price trigger. This tab walks those options in plain English so they’re easy to grasp, not technical.
We work directly with the sources for commercial power and natural gas. Fewer layers between your business and the sources. Results are different for each business's usage profile. Much of the industry sells fear — “prices are going up, prices are going up.” With today’s production and storage, that scare story is overblown.
Gas still moves. It’s a commodity. It will go up and down. What businesses need isn’t a panic call — it’s people who know exactly what they’re doing, watch the real numbers, and plan purchases around your budget.
Some sales approaches lean on fear when information and timing are unclear. We focus on real data, producer access, and timing — not scare tactics.
Natural gas (and power) is for everybody who buys energy — and larger businesses especially have real choices: lock it, float it, blend it, or set a price trigger. That’s what this tab is for.
The short version
Think of energy like interest rates on a big loan you renew forever. You can lock everything, float everything, lock some and float some, add a ceiling, buy on a preset price trigger, or layer purchases over months. Capacity through 2029 is largely known. Energy and gas still move. That is where structure earns its keep.
1. Full fixed — “set it and sleep”
What it is: One price per kWh (or per therm) for the term. Fixed-price products from the major energy companies all share the same idea: the seller absorbs market ups and downs; you buy budget certainty.
Best when: You hate surprises. Thin margins. Board wants a number.
Tradeoff: You could overpay if the market falls after you lock. Simplicity is the product.
What we solve: We time the lock. We do not “always fix today.” We watch forwards, watch gas, and strike when the print matches your risk — not a calendar accident.
2. Full index — “ride the tape”
What it is: Price floats with a published index — often PJM LMP hour by hour for power, or a gas hub / NYMEX-related print. Index products from the large independents and national retailers are built for buyers who can stomach volatility to chase soft markets.
Best when: You can take a punch, or you can shift load off peak, or you believe the market is soft and want market participation.
Tradeoff: A polar vortex or a pipeline scare can torch a month.
What we solve: Index without a desk is gambling. Index with monitoring around the clock, producer relationships, and a plan to convert into fixed on weakness is a strategy.
2b. Full index → lock when you’re ready — “float first, then fix”
What it is: Start fully on index. Float with the market. When the print looks right — today, next week, or months from now — convert some or all of your load to a fixed price. No scare pitch. No all-or-nothing day-one decision.
Why it fits us: This is a very flexible structure. You stay open while production and storage keep the panic story in check, and a real desk watches the market with you. When the price fits your budget, you lock. A desk without producer access cannot run this structure well; we bring the relevant access and monitoring.
What we solve: Fear of “missing the bottom” and fear of “locking too early.” Index-to-fixed gives you both: participation on the way down, certainty when you say go — backed by monitoring around the clock and real people you can call, text or email.
3. Block & index / layered hedges — “buy the house one room at a time”
What it is: Lock fixed blocks of volume (on-peak, off-peak, or around the clock) and leave the rest on index. Block-and-index and flexible-index structures from the large retailers are the textbook versions. You can layer more blocks later when the market softens — sometimes until you are effectively 100% fixed at a blended price.
Best when: Medium and large loads that know their shape. Factories. Big campuses. Anyone who wants a floor of certainty without marrying the entire forward curve on one Tuesday.
Tradeoff: Usage that misses the block settles at index — shape risk is real.
What we solve: We size the blocks to your meter, not a brochure. We layer when surpluses show up. We keep you from locking 100% at the top of the tape.
4. Percent fixed / flexible blend — “dial the risk”
What it is: Pick a percent fixed / percent index (say 60/40) and adjust over time. Flexible-index and percent-fixed products from the majors live here. Peak hours can be treated differently from off-peak.
Best when: You want a governed middle path — some insurance, some market participation.
What we solve: We set the dial to your cash-flow reality, then move it as capacity (known through 2029) and energy (still live) change the story.
5. Triggers & strike buys — “your price, on autopilot”
What it is: Market-watch / strike tools from the large national retailers: name a strike price. Soft alert when forwards touch it — or a hard trigger that executes a purchase for a block, a percent, or the whole load. Northeast gas marketers talk NYMEX triggers the same way: pre-agree the level, buy when the market comes to you.
Best when: You know your number but cannot stare at screens all day.
What we solve: That is the desk. We live on the tape. Your strike is a work order, not a wish.
6. Caps, floors, collars — “insurance with a deductible”
What it is: Option-style protection. A cap (call) sets a ceiling — you participate if prices fall, you are protected if they rip higher (you pay a premium). A floor (put) is the mirror for sellers or structured deals. A collar pairs a cap and a floor — cheaper protection, range-bound bill. Large C&I and sophisticated gas buyers use these structures; how retailers package them varies by company and market.
Best when: You need a worst-case number for the board but refuse to overpay for a full fixed in a soft market.
What we solve: We translate option-speak into dollars on your bill — premium vs. peace of mind — and use them when they beat a clean fixed or a smart layer.
7. Natural gas toolkit (power’s silent partner)
Gas isn’t one number. Every serious commercial deal splits NYMEX commodity from basis — getting the molecules to your citygate through Ohio LDCs such as Enbridge Gas Ohio (formerly Dominion), Columbia Gas of Ohio, Duke Energy Ohio gas, CenterPoint Energy Ohio (sale to National Fuel pending), and The Ohio Gas Company (northeast and northwest Ohio). You can lock one, both, or neither; lock volumes in slices; use storage-backed reliability where a marketer owns assets. When gas goes long, power often softens. When pipes constrain, both can bite.
What we solve: We watch gas and power together. Surplus gas is a buy signal — not a press release we read late.
7b. Basis first, commodity later — for gas over ~500 MCF
Plain English: A natural gas bill has two price pieces, not one.
- Commodity (Henry Hub / NYMEX) — the molecules themselves. The national benchmark price everyone quotes on TV.
- Basis — the “getting it here” piece. The difference between that national print and your local Ohio market (what LDCs like Duke Energy Ohio, Columbia Gas of Ohio, Enbridge Gas Ohio, CenterPoint Energy Ohio, or The Ohio Gas Company charge to move gas to your meter). That’s transportation and regional supply friction, not the fuel itself.
The move when prices look high: When the commodity is elevated and a business is ready to contract, basis almost always softens. So we don’t force you into one fat “all-in fixed” rather than treating one package as the sole option. We lock the basis first — nail down the transport/local piece — then come back (especially for winter heating customers) and lock the commodity when it hits the right price.
Who this is for: Natural gas customers using roughly 500 MCF and up — the load size where splitting the deal actually matters and a desk can time each piece.
What we solve: Some sales approaches lead with fear and a fixed bundle; we compare the structure and timing. We split the deal and time each piece. Real options. Real timing. Not “sign the high fixed because that’s all we sell.”
What to watch out for — “green gas” in Ohio
Green gas credits that don’t pencil.
Ohio does make some renewable natural gas at landfills — but the bulk of that volume is spoken for by utilities and vehicle-fuel programs, not sitting on a shelf for your plant. When a commercial customer actually asked in a major Ohio LDC territory (think Enbridge Gas Ohio / former Dominion footprint), the largest amount available was about 32 MCF per day. That’s a trickle, not a strategy.
The price punch is worse. The green gas credit alone ran roughly four times the cost of ordinary pipeline gas. And the BTU content that came with the deal was about half what pipeline natural gas delivers (raw landfill gas sits in that half-energy range; you’re paying a fortune for weak heat).
Do the math: four times the price · half the energy · almost none available. At those numbers, the green gas credit isn’t worth it. Buy real pipeline gas. Time the commodity. Lock the basis. Leave the virtue pitch on the table.
Clean power, nothing built on site
Want carbon-free power? Don’t put a farm on your roof.
Here’s the contrast with “green gas.” In Ohio, RNG is scarce, pricey, and a weak energy play. Carbon-free electricity credits are the opposite — widely available, easy to source, and they actually scale. A business can hit 100% clean without building any generation on site.
How: buy carbon-free credits, contract supply tied to a wind farm, or source from a nuclear facility. Same grid. Same lights. Verifiable clean claim.
Building generation on site is the priciest way to go clean. Capex. Space. Maintenance. Permits. Downtime risk. For many accounts, that’s the expensive path. Efficiency is the practical on-site step.
Real example: One of our clients had to deliver 75% carbon-free electricity to sell into Europe. We sourced it — credits and supply — and they satisfied the contract. Nothing built on site. No drama.
Our job: We hunt these opportunities for clients — credits, farm offtake, nuclear-backed clean — so you get the compliance and the story without the capital project. Easy. Smart. Not a rooftop science fair.
How to choose without a textbook hangover
| If you need… | Start here | Watch out for |
|---|---|---|
| Board-ready budget certainty | Full fixed (timed well) | Locking the top of the market |
| Upside when markets soften | Index + triggers | Weather and spike months |
| Float first, lock when ready | Full index → fix when ready | Need a desk watching with you |
| Control without all-or-nothing | Block & index / percent blend | Shape / volume mismatch |
| Ceiling without full lock | Cap or collar | Premium cost vs. benefit |
| Gas + power aligned | NYMEX/basis toolkit + power hedge | Pipe constraints into your zone |
| Gas over ~500 MCF, prices look high | Lock basis first, commodity later | One-size-fits-all fixed offers |
What a servicing company actually does with this menu
- Translate energy company product sheets into your load, your zone, your fiscal year.
- Monitor the markets around the clock — power and gas, worldwide — so soft prices are caught, not mourned.
- Talk to producers and read surplus early.
- Layer and trigger instead of one panicked signature.
- Fold in known PJM capacity through 2029 so the insurance line and the energy line are one plan.
- Keep you out of the wrong product — full index for a risk-off board is malpractice; full fixed at the high print is expensive comfort.
Bottom line: The large energy companies already built the tools — fixed, index, block-and-index, blends, triggers, NYMEX/basis locks, and option-style caps and collars. You do not need more jargon. You need someone who lives in the menu and picks the utensil that fits the meal.
US Energy Sales Ohio · usenergysalesohio.com
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Service area notes: We cannot service municipalities that have their own electric utility. Natural gas note: CenterPoint Energy Ohio is being sold to National Fuel; the sale is expected to close in late 2026. Its delivery rates remain regulated by the state. Results are different for each business's usage profile.